The Democratic Party is making a first-time investment in registering and turning out voters living outside of the United States. The party is estimating that some 1.6 million Americans abroad are from crucial battleground states this cycle.
According to details first shared with CBS News, the Democratic National Committee is investing $300,000 to reach voters outside the country — military and non-military. The investment, which the DNC says is its first in a presidential cycle, is meant to help “Democrats Abroad,” the main Democratic group in charge of registering and assisting non-military voters outside the U.S. with their mail-in ballots.
Non-military American voters who live outside the U.S. include those out of the country for business, students spending a semester abroad and “digital nomads” who are able to work remotely wherever they want.
While experts and operatives say the transient nature of voting-age ex-pats makes it difficult to track, the latest government data from the 2020 presidential election found that 2 million are either on active duty or are military spouses and dependents and that 2.9 million are non-military voting-age U.S. citizens. Of the nearly 5 million voting-age residents and military living abroad, 1.25 million registered to vote in 2020, according to an Election Administration and Voting survey.
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But the DNC believes that this cycle, more than 1.62 million voters abroad are from the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
While military voters turned out at 47% in 2020, only 8% of non-military voters living outside cast a ballot in the race between President Biden and former President Donald Trump. Non-military turnout in the 2022 Congressional midterms was even lower at 3.4%, according to the Federal Voting Assistance Program.
But Democrats point to heightened interest in Vice President Kamala Harris’ candidacy, and say their effort is to leave no stone unturned.
“This election will be won on the margins, and every single vote counts,” said DNC Executive Director Sam Cornale. “Democrats are leaving nothing to chance, investing heavily with our abroad party to ensure every single U.S. citizen has a voice in this election.”
Martha McDevitt-Pugh, the chair of Democrats Abroad, said that since Mr. Biden withdrew his candidacy on July 21, there’s been a 100% increase in Americans abroad registering to vote and requesting their ballot through their votefrombroad.org website.
“Joe Biden made us feel a little bit disconnected,” said Peter Scardino, a 25-year-old Democrat living in the U.K. “[Harris] is definitely a lot more of an inspiring candidate. I definitely think that we feel that across the pond with the news that we get.”
McDevitt-Pugh added that political leanings vary from country to country, but they tend to lean Democratic for most. One GOP group formed in 2013, Republican Overseas, directs abroad citizens looking to register to the non-partisan Federal Voting Assistance Program.
Abroad absentee ballots have been decisive in past elections.
When the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary was heading towards a recount, state election officials cited roughly 6,000 outstanding absentee ballots – including military and overseas ballots – that were still being counted. Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz was declared the winner by just 951 votes.
Half of the ballots requested in 2020 from American non-military voters were returned back to battleground states, according to Democrats Abroad. And the abroad ballots counted in Arizona (18,483) and Georgia (18,867) were more than Mr. Biden’s margin of victory, according to a 2020 analysis by the Electoral Assistance Commission.
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According to the Federal Voting Assistance Program, most adult U.S. citizens abroad reside in Canada, followed by the United Kingdom, France and Israel.
The technical aspect of returning ballots varies from state to state. But overseas citizens primarily used email, while uniformed services voters commonly send their ballots back by mail, according to a review by the Election Administration and Voting survey.
Having an infrastructure in place to educate voters on how and when to cast their vote is crucial, said McDeVitt-Pugh, who lives in the Netherlands but is registered to vote in California.
She notes these voters are often shifting, moving from place to place, so each cycle Democrats Abroad focuses on finding newer voters through their organizations on the ground in 190 countries.
In 2020, about 40% of states required overseas ballots to be received by election day, while 60% had deadlines after election day but had to be postmarked by then.
She said multiple battleground states – Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – require ballots to be sent back via mail, which can make it challenging in countries without “a well-functioning postal system.”
“You need to really get that ballot in early,” McDeVitt-Pugh said, adding that most absentee abroad ballots are sent by Sept. 21, 45 days before election day. “One of the big issues with Americans abroad is they wait too late.”
McDevitt-Pugh said the low turnout for U.S. citizens abroad is mainly because “people abroad don’t know they can vote… that they retain that right to vote.”
She added the DNC’s investment can help them with digital outreach in areas with lots of American citizens, such as Canada which has a large number of registered voters in Michigan and Ohio.
“There’s a whole variety of reasons people are living abroad. It’s really great to have recognition – this is an important constituency,” she added.
The right for overseas ballots to be counted by every state is protected under the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA), passed in 1967.